Let’s Do the Numbers

How much do reflectors, like the funflector® ones, actually help? The sad truth is that there are no solid numbers available. As far as we know, no one is collecting data on whether or not pedestrians who were hit by cars in the dark, had reflectors or not. However, reflectors have been promoted in Sweden since the 70’s. Insurance companies have given away hundreds of thousands of them over the years, so one has to assume that they do some good and that the repeated giveaways are based on rational business decisions to improve their bottom line. What we have though, are some numbers that we can compare between Sweden and the US, one country where 30-50% of adults wear reflectors and one where very few do. In each country, infrastructure and culture is the same day and night. Sweden has better street lights, but they are rarely enough to make a significant difference to seeing pedestrians several hundred feet away.
tally marks by funflector
So, here are the numbers (pretty rough, but give the order of magnitude): 

  • In Sweden, they have 0.7 pedestrian accidents during the dark hours for each day time accident. In the US, the number is 2.3!
  • In Sweden 30-50% of adults and 90% of kids wear reflectors. The numbers depend on the study. In the US, so few wear reflectors that no one even studies it.
  • Imagine Americans wore reflectors like the Swedes: 40% of adults (92 Million)  and 90% of children (71 Million)
  • Imagine then that the US would have only 0.7 pedestrian accidents during the dark hours for each daytime accident:
    • –3,100 nighttime fatalities (2012) would go down to 930 fatalities  –  2170 lives saved
    • –69,000 nighttime injuries (2012) would go down to 14,500 injured – 54,500 fewer injured
  • In summary, we could save 2170 lives and have 54,500 fewer injured – each year! That’s a lot of unshattered dreams, a 9/11 every year and a half!
  • Now, let’s make a (conservative) assumption that each fatality and injury costs on average $50,000* => That’s a (low) estimate of 2.8 billion dollars. Each year!

That’s a lot of money that can be saved, 2.8 billion dollars! And imagine over 56,000 people and their families not having their lives disrupted! Even if we are off by a factor of two, or as much as a factor of ten, it still make sense for insurance companies and others to give away good reflectors.
The funflector team
Sources:
American accident statistics 2012 from NHTSA
US population numbers
Swedish statistics on nighttime pedestrian accidents
Reflector usage in Sweden by TryggHansa
Result of the 2013 Traffic Safety Questionnaire (in Swedish), see page 26 for use of reflectors
*This number is impossible to get “right”. The cases range from fatal and serious with intensive care and rehab to those where a bandaid is enough. We believe $50,000 is a very conservative number, but let’s keep it there to make sure we don’t overestimate.
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